Morning News Roundup (27 September)

National Intelligence Estimate
The NIE that was reported to exist over the weekend (see previous post) was declassified yesterday, and despite the protestations and obfuscations of Dear Leader, it paints the grim picture that many were suggesting.

• In announcing yesterday that he would release the key judgments of a controversial National Intelligence Estimate, President Bush said he agreed with the document's conclusion "that because of our successes against the leadership of al-Qaeda, the enemy is becoming more diffuse and independent."
  
  But the estimate itself posits no such cause and effect. Instead, while it notes that counterterrorism efforts have seriously damaged and disrupted al-Qaeda's leadership, it describes the spreading "global jihadist movement" as fueled largely by forces that al-Qaeda exploits but is not actively directing. They include Iraq, corrupt and unjust governments in Muslim-majority countries, and "pervasive anti-U.S. sentiment among most Muslims."
  
  The overall estimate is bleak, with minor notes of optimism. It depicts a movement that is likely to grow more quickly than the West's ability to counter it over the next five years, as the Iraq war continues to breed "deep resentment" throughout the Muslim world, shaping a new generation of terrorist leaders and cultivating new supporters for their ideology. [WaPo]
  
  
• After five years of relative civility, the unspoken entente cordiale between the Bush and Clinton administrations to avoid assigning blame for the 9/11 attacks came to an abrupt end yesterday, with both leaders and their aides fighting for their respective legacies. But Mr Bush's "war on terror" narrative was contradicted by the report.
  
  "The Iraq jihad is shaping a new generation of terrorist leaders and operatives; perceived jihadist success [in Iraq] would inspire more fighters to continue the struggle elsewhere," it said.
  [...]
  The report, reflecting a consensus of 16 intelligence agencies, acknowledged some US success in disrupting al-Qaida. But it said these gains were outweighed by other factors, fuelling al-Qaida's spread: anger at corrupt Muslim regimes, anti-US sentiment, and a decentralised leadership that made it harder to penetrate.
  
  It also predicted further attacks in Europe as "extremist networks inside the extensive Muslim diasporas in Europe facilitate recruitment and staging". [The Guardian]
  
  
• Portions of the report appear to bolster President Bush’s argument that the only way to defeat the terrorists is to keep unrelenting military pressure on them. But nowhere in the assessment is any evidence to support Mr. Bush’s confident-sounding assertion this month in Atlanta that “America is winning the war on terror.’’
  [...]
  [T]here is a difference in tone between Mr. Bush’s public statements and the classified assessment that is unmistakable.
  
  The report says that over the next five years “the confluence of shared purpose and dispersed actors will make it harder to find and undermine jihadist groups.’’
  
  It also suggests that while democratization and “exposing the religious and political straitjacket that is implied by the jihadists’ propaganda’’ might dim the appeal of the terrorist groups, those factors are now outweighed by the dangerous brew of fear of Western domination, the battle for Iraq’s future and the slow pace of real economic or political progress. [NYTimes]
  
  
• The leaked excerpts from the report were first published by the New York Times on Sunday. Speaking to journalists on Tuesday, Mr Bush condemned the leak, calling his critics "naive". [BBC]
  
  
  
  
• But the pro-Bush blogs aren't ceding defeat yet. Blogs for Bush blames the Democrats, "who want nothing more than to paint the worst possible picture of everything in order to regain power". Michelle Malkin blames the report's authors and Say Anything points the finger at the dastardly media. [Guardian News Blog]
  
  
• Bush terrorism adviser Fran Townsend denied claims by House intel committee member Jane Harman (D-CA) yesterday that the White House is deliberately withholding a second intelligence estimate about Iraq until after November’s elections. [ThinkProgress' ThinkFast]

Lies and the Lying Liars

• A memo received by United States Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice shortly after becoming National Security Advisor in 2001 directly contradicts statements she made to reporters yesterday. "We were not left a comprehensive strategy to fight al Qaeda," Rice told a reporter for the New York Post on Monday. "Big pieces were missing," Rice added, "like an approach to Pakistan that might work, because without Pakistan you weren't going to get Afghanistan."
  [...]
  However, RAW STORY has found that just five days after President George W. Bush was sworn into office, a memo from counter-terrorism expert Richard A. Clarke to Rice included the 2000 document, "Strategy for Eliminating the Threat from the Jihadist Networks of al-Qida: Status and Prospects." This document devotes over 2 of its 13 pages of material to specifically addressing strategies for securing Pakistan's cooperation in airstrikes against al Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan. [Raw Story]

BushCo's Wars

• A strong majority of Iraqis want U.S.-led military forces to immediately withdraw from the country, saying their swift departure would make Iraq more secure and decrease sectarian violence, according to new polls by the State Department and independent researchers. In Baghdad, for example, nearly three-quarters of residents polled said they would feel safer if U.S. and other foreign forces left Iraq, with 65 percent of those asked favoring an immediate pullout. [WaPo]
  
  
• A Taliban suicide bomber killed 18 people outside a provincial governor's compound Tuesday, including several Muslim pilgrims set to travel to Mecca. It was the latest in a series of attacks directed at senior figures in President Hamid Karzai's U.S.-backed government. [WaPo]
  
  
• The Geneva-based World Economic Forum warned the United States Tuesday that its open-ended national security and war expenditures, along with tax cuts that led to large budget deficits, could affect the country's status as a powerful economic force. The Global Competitiveness Index report says that with potentially even higher spending commitments in defence and homeland security, which comes with the U.S. war on terror and ongoing plans to lower taxes further, the U.S. faces difficult fiscal balancing. It also says that the United States faces major institutional challenges because the quality of the country's public institutions fares worse than those of other rich nations in terms of transparency and efficiency, especially after the devastation wrought by Hurricane Katrina last year. [IPS]

Climate Crisis

• The journal Nature reports that Bush administration officials “blocked release of a report that suggests global warming is contributing to the frequency and strength of hurricanes,” the third such cover-up accusation in the last two weeks. [ThinkProgress' ThinkFast]
  
  
• Sir Richard Branson today called on the global aviation industry to work together to tackle the growing issue of climate change, saying if airlines, airports, air traffic controllers and governments worked together, up to 25% of the world's aviation carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions could be cut. One idea he has is of a "starting grid" at airports, "so that instead of sitting on planes with CO2 spewing out of those planes for anything up to 60-90 minutes ... while you're waiting to get on the runway to take off, you're towed by a small tug to the starting grid and then the pilot would turn on the engines 10 minutes before take off and then take off." [The Guardian via my Hugg]

Big Blue Marble

• Iran's top nuclear negotiator has arrived in Berlin for crunch talks with the EU's foreign policy chief in a final chance for the Islamic republic to agree to a nuclear deal offered by world powers. The deal offered by the five permanent council members plus Germany asks Iran to accept a package of incentives in exchange for it freezing enrichment work the West fears could be chanelled into producing nuclear arms. The Washington Times also reported Tuesday that Iran was close to agreeing to a secret deal that would have it suspend uranium enrichment for 90 days in order for additional talks to take place with European nations. [AFP]