Democracy Is Messy

I believe preeminent philosopher Donald Rumsfeld once said that. And it's going to get even messier with what looks like a stunning victory for the Hamas political party (aka, the Islamic Resistance Party) in Palestinian elections today. From the WaPo:

The radical Islamic group Hamas claimed victory Thursday in voting for the first Palestinian parliament in a decade, saying it won a clear majority of seats and had the right to form the next government.

The claims, although unconfirmed officially, were followed by the resignation of Prime Minister Ahmed Qureia and the rest of his cabinet. Resignation was a formality following parliamentary elections, but Qureia acknowledged that Hamas had likely won a majority in the 132-seat legislature and should be given the opportunity to form the next cabinet.

[...]

Hamas officials in Gaza City, where their victory was greatest, said the group has no plans to negotiate with Israel or recognize Israel's right to exist. Europe, Israel and the United States classify Hamas, formally known as the Islamic Resistance Movement, as a terrorist organization.

And just in case you were hoping that there might be some taint involved, the BBC notes:

Observers praised the election process, with EU monitoring team leader Veronique De Keyser saying the poll was "free and fair under severe restrictions", referring to Israeli measures to limit voting in East Jerusalem.

Jefferson Morley over at the WaPo (in his World Opinion Roundup column) gives a bit more background:

Hamas is benefiting from widespread dissatisfaction with the the Palestinian Authority, which is controlled by Fatah, the secular Palestinian movement created by Yasser Arafat. The Authority is seen as corrupt; Abbas is viewed as honest but ineffectual at controlling criminal gangs and gaining concessions from Israel.

Hamas, which refused to participate in the last Palestinian elections in 1996, has gained from its discipline, say former peace negotiators Hussein Agha and Robert Malley

"Over the past year, Hamas has on the whole adhered to a cessation of violence with Israel," they write in The Guardian. "Its elected municipal representatives coordinate with the Israeli administration; rather than oppose the principle of future negotiations, it disputes the basis of those held in the past; and, not unlike [incapacitated Israeli Prime Minister Ariel] Sharon, it favours a long-term interim agreement, albeit on terms different from those he supports."

[...]

Commentator Roni Shaked says Hamas has used the elections "to blur its extremist message, including the section that defines armed struggle against Israel as a strategy."

Writing in Ynet News, the Web site of Israel's most popular newspaper, Shaked says "the Palestinian public is enthralled, the West has started to speak about a 'new Hamas', and even Israel has started to speak about a different Hamas. We've all been fooled."

Shaked blames President Bush and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice for supporting elections "without understanding the dangers inherent in fundamentalist Islam.”

[...]

Hamas's political platform does not differ substantially from that of Fatah, Al-Ahram says: "It calls for the establishment of a Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital, although without specifying the boundaries of the state. Hamas' 30-page policy document does not mention the 'the destruction of Israel,' while the introduction defines the refugees' 'right of return' to what is now Israel as 'an inalienable right about which no political concessions should be made.'"

At the same time, Hamas is signaling that it does not rule out negotiations with Israel

"Negotiations are a means. If Israel has anything to offer on the issues of halting attacks, withdrawal, releasing prisoners ... then 1,000 means can be found," Hamas leader Mahmoud Al-Zahar told Reuters, according to Islam Online.

[UPDATE - 10am PST] Michael Hirsh over at Newsweek has a longish column about how the BushCo administration has misjudged the Middle East's yearn for democracy--which is there, but is not as secular as they thought. He wraps up with this:

Now Bush and his advisers have been quietly grappling with the idea that their principal interlocutors across the Arab world may soon be very religious men (sort of like them). Not just in Iraq either: Wednesday’s historic Palestinian election is likely to produce a substantial presence in Parliament for Hamas. When asked, U.S. officials insist they will have no dealings with Hamas, because it is a terrorist group. In private, however, the president has been gingerly laying out what one senior European official described last year as Bush's "theory of redemption."

As Bush put it in remarks last spring, even terrorists can be weaned from violence by the need to satisfy their constituencies. "Maybe some will run for office and say, 'Vote for me; I look forward to blowing up America'," Bush said. "But ... I think people who generally run for office say, 'Vote for me; I'm looking forward to fixing your potholes or making sure you've got bread on the table'."

Author Aslan—whose book argues that Islam has always made room for democracy, going back to the days of the Prophet—sees an “excellent political experiment” in all this. Hamas has removed sentences calling for the destruction of Israel from its campaign literature, he says, and it has performed better than the corrupt Fatah in delivering services to people. “For years we’ve been talking about how democratic participation is the only way to moderate extremist ideologies,” he says. “Here is the perfect chance to see that in play.” But first the Bush administration must admit that everything may not be coming up lilies.