Power Vacuum

The Hidden Tom Friedman (25 Jan 06)

Mr. Friedman takes a listen to the recent releases by Osama bin Laden and his lead guitarist Ayman al-Zawahiri and likens them to just another sad, old rock band releasing yet another repackaged version of their greatest hits (a la The Who, who must have about 18 greatest hits albums). But then he explains his flippancy (here's the link to the full column for Times Select subscribers):

What made bin Laden such a unique threat were three things: the fact that he had taken over a whole country, Afghanistan, where he could freely recruit and train forces and move around money; the fact that he controlled a political movement, the Taliban; and, most important, the fact that many Arabs and Muslims looked up to him and Al Qaeda as forces who were standing up to America.

But today bin Laden does not have Afghanistan, he does not have the Taliban, and while he still has some following, I don't think so many Arabs and Muslims are naming their sons "Osama" anymore.

Because anyone who has paid attention to recent events in Iraq, Indonesia, Sharm el Sheik, Afghanistan and Jordan knows that Al Qaeda has killed many more innocent Muslims than innocent Americans - and not just Shiite Muslims. And it has killed them at marketplaces, mosques, weddings and funerals. Qaeda murders have also exacted a huge toll on tourism in places like Egypt and Indonesia, killing jobs as well.

The best indications of how much this has hurt bin Laden in the Arab-Muslim world are the recent attacks on Al Qaeda by important Islamist voices, including some leaders of the powerful Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. On Jan. 7, after Zawahiri lambasted Muslim Brothers as U.S. stooges for taking part in Egypt's parliamentary elections, A.F.P. reported the following from Cairo:

"Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood responded Saturday to Al Qaeda's accusations of complicity with Washington by charging that the Islamist violence advocated by Osama bin Laden's network was counterproductive." A Brotherhood spokesman, Issam al-Aryan, asked, "What results have his resort to violence yielded?"

[...]

But while I am certain bin Laden is losing, I still don't feel that we are "winning," that we are really making progress in democratizing political life in the Arab-Muslim world. States and politics there are still dominated by military and intelligence services.

There is still no viable, free space for a vibrant civil society to emerge. Few independent political parties, newspapers or nongovernmental organizations have sprouted. Look at Egypt: President Hosni Mubarak holds elections, the Muslim Brotherhood wins a record number of seats, and the most liberal politician who dared to run against Mr. Mubarak gets thrown in jail. It's hard to call that progress.

The other reason it is hard to feel that we are winning is that America, and particularly President Bush, are still radioactive - widely disliked. Therefore, there are not a lot of Arab progressives who want to be seen publicly embracing Americans or their agenda.