Bubbling Under the Radar

Foreign Policy magazine has a list of ten news stories from 2005 that you may have missed. Here's a sampling of the items that stood out for me the most:

Hot Air’s Shifting Winds
When it comes to emitting greenhouse gases, the United States is usually seen as the bad guy, content to belch out fumes at its pleasure. But reports released in late November show that U.S. emissions have fallen for the first time in more than a decade. Between 2000 and 2003, U.S. emissions fell by 0.8 percent. By contrast, global goody-two-shoes Canada saw a 24.2 percent increase in 2003 from its 1990 levels. Even the sanctimonious Europeans are set to miss their Kyoto targets by 6.4 percent. Uncle Sam’s emissions dropped partly because U.S. firms introduced clean coal technologies and reduced their methane emissions. So, is the United States turning into the Green Giant? Hardly. The most important reason for its drop in emissions was the migration of heavy manufacturing to industrializing countries such as China, the world’s second-biggest emitter.

Europe’s Zombie Constitution
The French and the Dutch both rejected the European Union (EU) constitution this year. Back to the drawing board for Europe, right? Wrong. Brussels isn’t letting pesky voters get in the way of European integration. Daniel Hannan, a member of the European Parliament who is skeptical of the promises of integration, has identified 12 significant parts of the constitution that are being implemented despite the French and Dutch results—including the establishment of the European Defense Agency, a European Space Programme, and an EU diplomatic corps. European Commission spokesman Mikolaj Dowgielewicz says charging ahead isn’t a problem because “these are not the things why people voted against—or in favor—of the constitution. People did not vote against the constitution in France and the Netherlands, or in favor in Spain, because of the Space Agency.” Europeans should have seen this coming when, in June—after the votes were counted—EU President Jean-Claude Juncker said, “I really believe neither the French nor the Dutch rejected the constitutional treaty.” Maybe he missed the stories about the “no” votes, too?

Oil's Opaque Outlook
With oil prices soaring this year, the debate over the future of this precious commodity heated up. But lost in the mix was ExxonMobil’s report The Outlook for Energy: A 2030 View. The total oil output of non-OPEC producers, according to ExxonMobil’s projection, will peak around 2010, after which OPEC will have to add more than 1 million barrels per day, every year, to keep up with world demand by 2030. “In 2003, Algeria produced 1.1 million barrels per day,” wrote energy analyst Alfred J. Cavallo in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. “A new Algeria would need to be brought on line in the Persian Gulf each and every year beyond 2010 just to keep up with the projected increase in demand.” That’s no easy prospect. To make matters worse, most OPEC countries, including vital “swing producer” Saudi Arabia, do not allow independent audits of their oil reserves, so we may have even less warning of any future shortfalls. Under OPEC’s quota system, members have every incentive to inflate their reserve figures: The more they claim to have, the more they can sell. The price of a barrel of black gold just went up—again.

Still, a Wounded Military
In last year’s list, we pointed out that the health of the U.S. military was in serious decline. At 7 to 1, the ratio of wounded to dead in Iraq was the highest of any conflict in recent memory, including Vietnam, where the ratio was 3 to 1. A year later, the story is worse—and still largely ignored. In 2005, the most common number cited regarding the war in Iraq was the more than 2,100 U.S. soldiers that have died. When the number of wounded was mentioned, the Pentagon figure of more than 15,500 U.S. troops, or the Army Medical Department’s total of 20,748 medical evacuations, was usually rolled out. Today, the wounded-to-dead ratio remains near 7 to 1 by this official count. But a Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) report released in October tells a bigger story. Its data shows that 119,247 veterans of operations in Iraq and Afghanistan have sought VA healthcare. Of those, 46,450 were diagnosed primarily with musculoskeletal problems, such as joint ailments and back disorders. More than 36,800 veterans, or 31 percent of those the VA cared for, were treated primarily for mental disorders. Not even the VA had anticipated the number of soldiers they would be asked to help. In June, the agency told lawmakers that it had underestimated the the number of Iraq and Afghanistan veterans, and required $1 billion in emergency funding.