Not So Fast
The Hidden Columnists--David Brooks Edition

David responds to Jack Murtha and all the other cut'n'runners who are calling for the US to get out of Iraq as fast as possible with his Sunday column--"The Importance of Staying with Iraq" (here's the link for Times Select subscribers):

On one level, Jack Murtha is right. The American presence in Iraq does incite violence. The American presence in Iraq does lend popular legitimacy to the terrorists that they would not otherwise have. All things being equal, it would be a good thing if we could reduce the American presence in Iraq.

But when Jack Murtha calls for U.S. withdrawal from Iraq, he is not mostly right. For while the American presence is a catalyst for violence in Iraq, it is not the main catalyst. The main source of violence in Iraq is the sectarian war between the Sunnis and the Shiites. The main source of violence is that the Sunnis think they are the majority and can't accept the possibility that the Shiites, whom they consider as almost subhuman, should be allowed to run their own affairs.

And what also drives violence in Iraq is that the Shiites have responded to Sunni supremacy by turning ultrachauvinist themselves. In the vacuum of security caused by the botched American occupation, these ethnic tensions have turned into a low-grade civil war.

If the U.S. withdraws, that would not eliminate the irritant that plagues Iraqi society. Instead, it would eliminate the one source of authority that prevents the country from imploding.

If the U.S. leaves, Iraq will descend into a full-scale civil war. The Iranians will come in on the side of the Shiites. The Syrians, Saudis and God knows who else will be tempted to come in on the side of the Sunnis. The Turks will be tempted to come in to take care of the Kurds. We might be looking at the Middle East version of World War I.

In his heartfelt cry of agony, Jack Murtha didn't stop to consider the consequences of an immediate U.S. withdrawal. But this is where his policy leads. If the Democrats become the party of withdrawal, this is what they will have to live with. Are they really going to become the Come Home America party of George McGovern once again?

Countering Rich's charge (see today's HC Rich Edition post below) that the Iraqi army isn't ready to handle the security of its new sovereign nation, Brooks sees great advances:

Furthermore, almost all the experts believe that after 18 months of incompetence, the U.S. is getting its act together. Zalmay Khalilzad, the best representative the U.S. has had in Iraq, has created a semifunctional political process. Condoleezza Rice has exerted control and has laid out a much more comprehensive and energetic anti-insurgency strategy than anything Donald Rumsfeld ever came up with.

Most important, the training of Iraqi troops has been going well. Authoritative investigators like Jack Keane, the retired Army general, report that the Iraqi troops are becoming effective fighters and their morale is high.

Why does Jack Murtha want to give up just when it might be possible to reap the benefits of these belated accomplishments? Why does he want to give up just before an election, when Sunnis and Shiites might begin to form the sort of national institutions that are required to rebind the two communities and calm the slow-boiling civil war?

Murtha's policy is incomprehensible and it is incomprehensible that so many Democrats are shifting toward accelerated withdrawal.

But Brooks isn't all happy happy joy joy:

There's one area, though, where I completely sympathize with Jack Murtha. I sympathize with his frustration. On Feb. 23, 1942, Franklin Roosevelt asked Americans to spread out maps before them and he described, step by step, what was going on in World War II, where the U.S. was winning and where it was losing. Why can't today's president do that? Why can't he show that he is aware that his biggest problem is not in Iraq, it's on the home front?

Since the president doesn't give out credible information, it's no wonder Republicans are measuring success by how quickly we can get out; it's no wonder many Democrats are turning the war into a political tool to bash the president; and it's no wonder that people like well-meaning but weary Jack Murtha have simply given up.