LostBrad Delong, professor in economic history at UC-Berkeley, had a great commentary on today's
Marketplace radio program (on NPR stations) that really puts what's coming down the pike in the after-effects of this disaster into clear perspective:
| We don't know how damaged the Gulf coast oil infrastructure is yet, we don't know yet what other hurricanes will come roaring through, but we do know that we are going to be poorer. Current estimates are that Hurricane Katrina has destroyed something like $100 billion of America's wealth. Almost all of these losses will fall on the perhaps one and a half million refugees. Figure average wealth losses of $70,000 per affected household, then figure it will take months to even rebuild and reknit economic activity in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. That's an extra $10,000 lost per household. Insurance won't cover more than a fraction.
If the Gulf coast oil sector is in good shape, it won't be all that many months before measured real GDP is perhaps a little bit higher than had Katrina never come ashore. But the GDP number won't count those billions of destroyed wealth. The already poor lower Mississippi valley will be much poorer for years to come. Not just that. People who are office professionals will be construction helpers. People who were middle class will be working class. People who were working class will be working poor, for seasons if not for years. America's poverty rate has been slowly rising for half a decade. Here we see the human face of poverty being pushed up over a weekend. Let's just hope we can handle the reconstruction effort a little better than we're handling the tragedy that is unfolding as I speak. |
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