Ripple Effect

It's becoming quite clear that the Hurricane Katrina disaster goes well beyond what we've seen from previous hurricanes, where any devastation is felt far more locally and the economic impact is mainly on insurance companies. While perhaps not in league with this year's East Asian tsunamis, Katrina has completely devastated whole communities--from coastal towns to New Orleans--and most likely has killed thousands.

That in itself would be enough to make one feel some shock and awe. But it's going to get worse. The effects of Katrina will not only be felt on the local level--where infrastructure and the tenuous economies that seem to be built on tourism and gambling have been completely gutted--but will ripple out to affect the entire nation.

Diarist Bob P over at the European Tribune (a great offshoot of the Booman Tribune, which seems to be a satellite of Daily Kos) has a fantastic summary, titled "This Hurricane is a Much Bigger Deal Than You Realize." I highly recommend giving it a full read, but here are a couple of items to mull over:

Simply put - and keep in mind, I'm only talking about New Orleans right now - a city of over half a million people is now entirely under 20 feet of water. And because all power, electricity, internet access is out and the entirety of New Orleans's government and media have left the city, we really don't know just how bad the human toll is at this point. Needless to say, I think it is going to be at least in the hundreds and quite likely in the thousands. The reason the death toll counts are so low at this point is only because it is impossible to get close enough to the scene to really know, let alone find those trapped. [...] And I haven't even got to the Mississippi coast. Which I will now do. The center of the hurricane actually hit this area, which was part of the reason people thought New Orleans had experienced a "near miss" yesterday. While this area does not have a city the size of New Orleans, it does have a number of small cities which have also been virtually destroyed. For example, Gulfport, which has a population of 71,000. Right now, news reports are saying that as much of 90% of Gulfport has been destroyed by flooding and wind damage. Likewise, the city of Biloxi - 50,000 - was hard hit. So far, we know at least 30 people died there when an apartment building collapsed. As is the case in New Orleans, we really don't know how bad the human and material toll is, but rumors are now circulating that the death toll is "at least" several hundred and quite likely in the 1000s.

He also points to a Stratfor article hosted on Information Clearinghouse, which was written before the hurricane touched ground and was speculating on the ramifications of a Category 5 hurricane hitting the valuable ports of southern Louisiana:

Were it to strike directly and furiously, Katrina would not only take a massive human toll, but also an enormous geopolitical one. The Port of Southern Louisiana is the fifth-largest port in the world in terms of tonnage, and the largest port in the United States. The only global ports larger are Singapore, Rotterdam, Shanghai and Hong Kong. It is bigger than Houston, Chiba and Nagoya, Antwerp and New York/New Jersey. It is a key link in U.S. imports and exports and critical to the global economy. [...] If New Orleans is hit, the Port of Southern Louisiana, by definition, also will be hit. No one can predict the precise course of the storm or its consequences. However, if we speculate on worse-case scenarios the following consequences jump out: The port might become in whole or part unusable if levees burst. If the damage to the river and port facilities could not be repaired within 30 days when the U.S. harvests are at their peak, the effect on global agricultural prices could be substantial. There is a large refinery at Belle Chasse. It is the only refinery that is seriously threatened by the storm, but if it were to be inundated, 250,000 barrels per day would go off line. Moreover, the threat of environmental danger would be substantial. About 2 percent of world crude production and roughly 25 percent of U.S.-produced crude comes from the Gulf of Mexico and already is affected by Katrina. Platforms in the path of Katrina have been evacuated but others continue pumping. If this follows normal patterns, most production will be back on line within hours or days. However, if a Category 5 hurricane (of which there have only been three others in history) has a different effect, the damage could be longer lasting. Depending on the effect on the Port of Southern Louisiana, the ability to ship could be affected. A narrow, two-lane highway that handles approximately 10,000 vehicles a day, is used for transport of cargo and petroleum products and provides port access for thousands of employees is threatened with closure. A closure of as long as two weeks could rapidly push gasoline prices higher.

This natural disaster has the ability to affect the national economy (and global economy) far more than the man-made disaster of 9/11. So it's another moment for the nation to come together and do what one is able to do. Here's what the NYTimes editorial board has to say:

People who think of that graceful city and the rest of the Mississippi Delta as tourist destinations must have been reminded, watching the rescue operations, that the real residents of this area are in the main poor and black. The only resources most of them will have to fall back on will need to come from the federal government. Those of us in New York watch the dire pictures from Louisiana with keen memories of the time after Sept. 11, when the rest of the nation made it clear that our city was their city, and that everyone was part of the battle to restore it. New Orleans, too, is one of the places that belongs to every American's heart - even for people who have never been there. Right now it looks as if rescuing New Orleans will be a task much more daunting than any city has faced since the San Francisco fire of 1906. It must be a mission for all of us.

Here are some starting points for helping:

• Red Cross
  
• Habitat for Humanity