The Economist on Obama

For Mrs. F (the Senator's #1 fan in Seattle) from this week's Economist (subscription required, hence a larger than usual excerpt) commenting on Barack Obama's recent statement that he will consider a Presidential bid in 2008 once the mid-term elections are over and he hashes things out with his family:

Several pundits have pronounced the Democratic primary a two-horse race between Mr Obama and Hillary Clinton, which is overstating things. John Edwards is strong with the grassroots; Al Gore is a still-rumbling volcano. But Mr Obama, who is 45, has transformed the race, jumping over greybeards such as John Kerry and giving the Democratic Party its biggest shot of excitement for years.

Mr Obama's not-quite-declaration is especially bad news for Mrs Clinton. The junior senator for New York has spent the past six years—some would say nearly six decades—buffing her presidential credentials. She has supported the war in Iraq to prove that she is “tough enough”, made nice with her Republican tormentors and hoovered up Democratic money. And now a mere greenhorn, who was marking law papers when she was co-running a “two-for-the-price-of-one” presidency, has shoved her out of the limelight.

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Mr Obama has no shortage of positive qualities. He is a superb public speaker—his address to the 2004 Democratic Convention turned him into a celebrity even before he was elected to the Senate—and bright with it. He is also black. It is hard to overestimate the extent to which many Americans would like to elect a black man—or at least one of Mr Obama's calibre. The product of a mixed marriage—his mother was “white as milk”, in his words, and his father, a Kenyan rather than an African-American, “black as pitch”—he is still black enough to dodge the “Oreo” slur. His father left his mother when he was two; he was brought up by his grandparents. Common, a rapper, has even devoted a line to him: “Why is Bush acting like he trying to get Osama? Why don't we impeach him and elect Obama?”

Mr Obama's rapid rise has inevitably provoked criticisms. One is that he is a young man in a hurry. He should take his turn in the queue—get a Senate chairmanship under his belt, and learn the ways of Washington. Such advice is either malign or misguided. The 2008 race is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity—with the nominations open on both sides and the country desperate for a fresh face and a new direction. If he waits until 2012, he will have to take on an incumbent president; by 2016 he could well be yesterday's news. And a Senate record is a wasting asset. At best, you accumulate hostages to fortune in the form of controversial votes; at worst, you contract senators' disease, droning on about mark-up, earmarks, filibusters and cloture.

The second criticism has more substance: that Mr Obama is a lightweight. How would a man who has no foreign-policy or military background fare against John McCain, the Republican front-runner? And how would someone with no executive experience deal with Mitt Romney, a successful entrepreneur and Republican governor? Mr Obama's political philosophy is all about blurring boundaries where it is not pure waffle. Politics involves making difficult decisions, not dodging them.

That said, Mr Obama is tougher than he seems. His rhetoric is as carefully calculated as it is well crafted. He knows that the presidential vote is the most personal vote Americans cast: people voted for John Kennedy (who was only 43 when he was elected) because of his stardust, not his record. He knows that Americans want a president who can get beyond the politics of division. And he knows that Americans are suckers for optimism. If Bill Clinton was the man from Hope, Mr Obama is the man with the audacity of hope.

And beneath all the rhetoric is a tough-as-nails professional. Mr Obama took on a crowded Democratic field in the 2004 Illinois Senate primary to capture 53% of the vote. He has delivered plenty of pork to Midwestern interests—including championing domestic ethanol production, to save the planet, while opposing the lifting of tariffs on cheaper Brazilian ethanol. This is not a man who is above raising doubts, albeit subtly, about Mr McCain's age or Mr Romney's pandering to the religious right.

In 1995 Colin Powell used the launch of his memoirs to explore a presidential bid. He sold 2.6m copies of the book, but got cold feet about running. Mr Powell's punishment is that he will go down in history not as America's first black president but as an enabler of a war he privately thought a mistake. The Democratic Party needs to think carefully about picking a charismatic neophyte over a more seasoned operator. But it looks as though Mr Obama will be there to give them the choice.