Somebody's Knockin' on the Door, Somebody's Ringin' the Bell (The Hidden Krugman)

Wow! The picture below (from the Los Angeles Times) is of the huge rally in downtown LA protesting the immigration legislation passed by the House and on its way in the Senate. It attracted over 500,000 protesters!



But it wasn't the only protest over the last couple of days; via the WaPo:

In Charlotte, between 5,000 and 7,000 people gathered Saturday carrying signs with slogans such as "Am I Not a Human Being?" In Sacramento, more than 4,000 people protested during a march honoring the late farm labor leader Cesar Chavez. In Denver, more than 50,000 people protested downtown, according to police who had expected only a few thousand. Phoenix was similarly surprised Friday when an estimated 20,000 people gathered for one of the biggest demonstrations in city history, and more than 10,000 marched in Milwaukee on Thursday.

Which brings us to today's Paul Krugman column, North of the Border (fully available to Times Select subscribers), in which the Professor states that he's "instinctively, emotionally pro-immigration" before noting some non-partisan facts about the economics of immigration:

First, the net benefits to the U.S. economy from immigration, aside from the large gains to the immigrants themselves, are small. Realistic estimates suggest that immigration since 1980 has raised the total income of native-born Americans by no more than a fraction of 1 percent.

Second, while immigration may have raised overall income slightly, many of the worst-off native-born Americans are hurt by immigration — especially immigration from Mexico. Because Mexican immigrants have much less education than the average U.S. worker, they increase the supply of less-skilled labor, driving down the wages of the worst-paid Americans. The most authoritative recent study of this effect, by George Borjas and Lawrence Katz of Harvard, estimates that U.S. high school dropouts would earn as much as 8 percent more if it weren't for Mexican immigration.

That's why it's intellectually dishonest to say, as President Bush does, that immigrants do "jobs that Americans will not do." The willingness of Americans to do a job depends on how much that job pays — and the reason some jobs pay too little to attract native-born Americans is competition from poorly paid immigrants.

Finally, modern America is a welfare state, even if our social safety net has more holes in it than it should — and low-skill immigrants threaten to unravel that safety net.

Basic decency requires that we provide immigrants, once they're here, with essential health care, education for their children, and more. As the Swiss writer Max Frisch wrote about his own country's experience with immigration, "We wanted a labor force, but human beings came." Unfortunately, low-skill immigrants don't pay enough taxes to cover the cost of the benefits they receive.

[...]

Realistically, we'll need to reduce the inflow of low-skill immigrants. Mainly that means better controls on illegal immigration. But the harsh anti-immigration legislation passed by the House, which has led to huge protests — legislation that would, among other things, make it a criminal act to provide an illegal immigrant with medical care — is simply immoral.

Meanwhile, Mr. Bush's plan for a "guest worker" program is clearly designed by and for corporate interests, who'd love to have a low-wage work force that couldn't vote. Not only is it deeply un-American; it does nothing to reduce the adverse effect of immigration on wages. And because guest workers would face the prospect of deportation after a few years, they would have no incentive to become integrated into our society.

[...]

We need to do something about immigration, and soon. But I'd rather see Congress fail to agree on anything this year than have it rush into ill-considered legislation that betrays our moral and democratic principles.

On the flip (just click the Full Post link below), I've got more on the economics of immigration from the WaPo and on the looming Senate bill from the LATimes.

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The WaPo story focuses on why there's such an influx of immigrants--they're willing to take jobs that aren't attractive, either due to the type of job or, more likely, the amount of money offered.

Year after year, Professional Grounds Inc. runs a help-wanted ad to find landscapers and groundskeepers. Starting wage: $7.74 per hour. In a good year, three people call. Most years, no one does.

So the Springfield company relies on imported labor -- seasonal guest workers allowed to immigrate under the federal guest-worker program -- to keep itself running. For 10 months this year, 23 men from Mexico and Central America will spend their days mulching and mowing, seeding and sodding for Professional Grounds.

[...]

Here lies the dilemma facing Congress as it attempts an immigration overhaul. Businesses say it is hard to persuade Americans to perform the unskilled jobs that immigrants easily fill. Significantly higher wages might work, but that increase would be passed on to unhappy consumers, forcing Americans to give up under-$10 manicures and $15-per-hour paint and lawn jobs.

And here's what's coming up in the Senate this week from the LATimes story:

The Judiciary Committee, which oversees immigration matters, is working under a March 27 deadline imposed by Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-Tenn.). Though it looked close to a compromise 10 days ago, the committee goes into its final meeting today struggling to bridge a core breach over whether illegal immigrants should be able to earn citizenship.

[...]

Specter backs comprehensive legislation that includes enforcement measures, a guest-worker plan and a provision allowing the estimated 12 million illegal immigrants already here to remain legally.

But if no consensus is reached on the Judiciary Committee proposal, the Senate will instead debate an enforcement-only bill introduced by Frist.

Senators who back a guest-worker plan or legal status for illegal immigrants will have to bring those measures to the Senate floor as amendments to Frist's bill, a process that will be considerably more chaotic and argumentative than committee debate.

Frist, who is seen as a likely White House contender in 2008, assembled a get-tough bill that includes both a border fence and provisions that make being in the United States illegally — or knowingly providing services or assistance to undocumented immigrants — a felony.

But it ignores Bush's call for a guest-worker program. As a result, Frist would have to contend with a threat from Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) to block any legislation that does not include such a plan.

[...]

Another senator with presidential ambitions, John McCain (R-Ariz.), co-authored a bill with Sen. Edward M. Kennedy (D-Mass.) that is backed by business, church and immigrant groups and provides guest-workers and illegal immigrants a path to citizenship.

I'll definitely have more on this as the week progresses, as I still need to read up on all the details of these bills and the nuances of the debates.