Tuesday, September 14, 2004

Bushonomics
Yeah! The unemployment rate is the lowest it's been since 2001. George Bush's economic plans are working! Um. Or not.

What we have seen over the past three years is that as job growth has faltered, many workers have gotten fed up and left the labor market, keeping the unemployment rate artificially low. 

In August alone 150,000 workers left the labor force. They no longer tell surveyors that they are seeking work. They have given up the job hunt to help out at home, take classes or simply wait until a job hunt is more likely to produce results. When Bush took office, the labor force participation rate – which measures the fraction of the civilian population over 16 that is either working or looking for work – was 67.2 percent. Today that percentage has dropped to 66.0 percent. If the same share of the population had remained in the work force it would be 2.7 million workers larger than it is today. That would push the unemployment rate up to 7.1 percent. 

In addition, the unemployment rate does not count all the people who are forced into part-time work because of the weakness in the labor market. In our increasingly agile labor market, many people are choosing to work part-time to balance their competing needs. But the number of people who, when surveyed, said they are working part-time only because they could not find full-time jobs has increased by 35 percent since Bush took office, the largest increase for any President on record. If we were to count these 4.5 million involuntary part-time workers as 'part-unemployed' the overall unemployment rate would increase further. 

Finally, comparing the static unemployment rate today to that in 1996 is a bit like arguing that two cars whizzing by each other on a highway are at the exact same point, even if they are headed in opposite directions. It fails to capture the fact that under President Clinton the unemployment rate had fallen by 30 percent to reach its 5.1 percent level in August of 1996, while it has increased 29 percent to reach its 5.4 percent level under Bush. It fails to account for the 2 million fewer unemployed people in August 1996 than in January 1993 and the 2 million more unemployed people today than in January 2001. This is not to mention the 10.4 million jobs that had been created under Clinton compared to the 1 million jobs lost under Bush. 


Well, at least home ownership is at the highest rate it's ever been... oh, wait... every succeeding year the home ownership rate is the greatest its ever been.


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